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Brief Book Reviews - 2 |
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Index to Brief Book Reviews:
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Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics by William Bonner and Lila Rajiva Wiley - August 2007 Reviewed by Dr. Jonathan Dolhenty Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets by William Bonner and Lila Rajiva is a fascinating work which considers how people think and behave, privately and collectively, and the effects these different modes have within the public sphere. I haven't quite decided which specific literary genre this book falls into; maybe that is inconsequential anyway. There's a lot of history, much economics and politics and, well, almost every other recognized social science comes into play. The main theme, however, seems to be well illustrated in the subtitle of the book: "Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics." This is not, therefore, merely an academic inquiry into group dynamics, but a very practical one as well. In the interest of full disclosure, I have received Bill Bonner's "Daily Reckoning" financial newsletter via e-mail for a number of years, so I am somewhat familiar with his writing style and his viewpoint regarding matters economic and political. This is the first time, however, that I have read a book which he has authored or co-authored. Fortunately for the casual reader, this book is not the least bit "dry" or dull, as all too many book dealing with this or similar topics seem to be. In fact, there are many times in this work where the authors relate or allude to something that is downright hilarious. Be that as it may, this is a serious look at an important phenomenon in the human condition. Mob psychology is one of the most interesting topics to study and reflect upon. Even a brief inquiry into the dynamics of crowd behavior raises all sorts of interesting questions. And then there is the notion of so-called "groupthink," a term used by Bonner and Rajiva is their book. I particularly liked their colorful way of describing that notion. Referring to it as the "shifting bog of groupthink," it is "not only completely different from private thinking but is an illusion, piled on top of a fraud, stacked on a foundation of humbug, built in the mud of misconception with the building blocks of lunacy." Couldn't have said it better myself! As for me, someone who is just as fearful of a "mobocracy" as of an "autocracy, that description is more than satisfying. Many insights into crowd psychology are provided during this journey into human thinking and behavior and the historical range of illustrative topics is broad and sweeping. Why do so many otherwise intelligent people jettison their common sense and rational thinking in order to just "follow the crowd"? Why do so-called "do-gooders" go so bad? Why do "witch hunts" occur so often, even in sophisticated and intellectually advanced societies? How do Hitlers and Stalins come to captivate the attention of and accumulate power over otherwise intelligent and rational human beings? How does "groupthink" affect those involved in the financial markets, such as investors and advisors? Moreover, how can one avoid getting caught up in the frenzy of mob psychology, whether in economics or politics or anywhere else? This book is both an interesting historical adventure and a very practical primer, especially for those involved in the financial markets. As it says inside the dust-cover: "The authors' cautionary tale of the current bubble economy warns that the gush of credit let loose by Alan Greenspan is fraught with perils for the unwary -- but their thoughtful and always entertaining approach also offers some sound investing principles for avoiding the pitfalls of the public spectacle, thinking for yourself, and protecting your money, your sanity, and your soul." Who could ask for more than that?
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Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes by Mark Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne Twelve - September 2007 Reviewed by Dr. Jonathan Dolhenty When Microtrends arrived on my desk, I wasn't sure what I was about to get into. I'm used to dealing with "big" trends or "macrotrends" as they are usually called. As part of my doctoral program many years ago, I had to choose a research technique and prove some proficiency in it. It was usually required up to the latter years of the 20th century for doctoral candidates to show a reading knowledge of some "scholarly" language - German, French, Latin, or some ancient language were common choices depending upon one's academic discipline. This requirement underwent a change, however, and many doctoral students, particularly in the newer research disciplines were allowed choices outside of the language area. For example, a working knowledge of computer research techniques or a knowledge of quantitative analysis (read "statistical research and measurement") could be substituted for the language requirement. Since I had chosen French for my master's degree, and because of a budding interest in empirical research in the social sciences, I opted to use quantitative analysis to satisfy the research requirement. So I took a number of courses in statistics and measurement techniques, finally passing a qualifying exam in a general seminar in quantitative analysis. I have been captivated with statistical studies of social phenomena ever since. This may explain why I found Microtrends a fascinating read, a real page-turner for those, such as yours truly, who enjoy investigating and analyzing what is going on in the entire public sphere. Microtrends are the "little" trends in life, the ones to which, all too often, scant attention is paid, but which can have huge consequences. Mark Penn examines more than 70 microtrends in his book, ranging from those in human relationships, race and religion, family, politics, teens, to looks and fashions -- and these are just a few of the larger categories included. Yes, there are many specific microtrends discussed within these larger categories, such as those affecting Christian Zionists, Vegan Children, High School Moguls, Shy Millionaires, New Luddites, Numbers Junkies, and Educated Terrorists, just to name a few. It's a roller-coaster ride through almost the entire cultural milieu and the numbers are extremely interesting. But, as Penn points out: "The power of individual choice has never been greater, and the reasons and patterns for those choices never harder to understand and analyze. The skill of microtargeting -- identifying small, intense subgroups and communicating with them about their individual needs and wants -- has never been more critical in marketing or in political campaigns. The one-size-fits-all approach to the world is dead." And so it seems. However, a caveat regarding this matter may be advisable. It should be kept in mind that statistical numbers are really a snapshot in time and space. They certainly may indicate a trend in the here and now -- at this specific time in this particular place -- but the numbers provide no guarantee, of course, that they are absolutely prophetic regarding the future. Things can change rapidly in our modern age of rapid transportation and communication. Trends can point toward a future; they cannot write that future. Penn realizes this, naturally, and notes that "The future rarely turns out as predicted. The reason is that most predictions are driven by the same conventional wisdom that drives the daily consensus around us, and are usually based on the big, easily spotted observations like the spread of the global economy. But as you dig deeper, you see a world teeming with lesser-known, harder-to-spot developments that really are the small forces that will drive tomorrow's big changes." Can't argue with that! Microtrends is very readable and is not intended just for the specialist or professional. Most readers will find it comfortable reading and I suspect that statistics junkies will thoroughly enjoy the book. Whether or not the microtrends discussed turn out to be a realistic picture of the future doesn't really matter to most of us, but they are a fascinating picture of where we are now. Finally, Penn provides many helpful charts and tables, as well as thirty-nine pages of sources, and a handy topical index. Highly recommended. |
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