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December
5, 2007
Bernanke's
Bureaucratic Vision of Economic Growth
by Gary North, Ph.D.
Ben
Bernanke is an academic. He possesses the biases of
almost all academics. He trusts formal education to
solve the problems of society. This mindset leads
him to trust the Federal Reserve's press releases,
which all rest on a single assumption: the superior
wisdom of a committee of salaried academics to set
the federal funds rate, rather than let bankers
decide what overnight rate to charge other
banks.
Academics argue that it is America's system of
formal, mostly tax-funded education that, above any
other single factor, has produced America's
economic growth. It never ceases to amaze me that
free market economists could still believe this.
The heart of economic production is a combination
of (1) entrepreneurial economic foresight, which
has no known positive relationship to the classroom
education offered by salaried, Ph.D-holding
bureaucrats (it may have a negative relationship);
(2) a system of sanctions imposed by consumers:
profit-and-loss; (3) private property.
In a November 29 speech to the Chamber of
Commerce of Charlotte, North Carolina, Bernanke
delivered the usual blah-blah-blah on the state of
the national economy. By now, his speeches are
mostly boilerplate: the FED doesn't have enough
data to be sure of anything; there are still latent
inflationary pressures; but -- all things
considered -- the economy is doing reasonably well.
"Please stay tuned."
The third section of his speech, on the economy
of North Carolina, is really very useful --
completely wrongheaded, but useful. It reveals
Bernanke's mindset, and the mindset of most
academics, including academic economists.
He also mentioned something I had not known. His
maternal grandfather was named Friedman. I ask: Is
there no escape from monetary policy designed by
the Friedmans?
THE LOSS OF MANUFACTURING JOBS
America is moving from a nation of goods
producers to a nation of paper-shufflers and
digit-shufflers. This has been going since the
1960's.
This development is usually blamed on price
competition from Asian workers. This development is
widely heralded by free market economists as a
positive economic benefit. I am not one of
them.
The move to paper-shuffling has been a direct
effect of the bureaucratization of the American
economy. The Federal government is the prime mover
here, not the free market. The free market has
responded to changing economic incentives. As the
state has claimed ever-greater control over the
American economy, profit-seeking businessmen have
shifted production to meet the economic demand of
the government. The government taxes money, borrows
money, and prints money. Then it spends it.
Entrepreneurs follow the money.
Here is Bernanke's assessment of what has been
going on in North Carolina.
- Economically speaking, Carolinians have
faced the same challenge confronting many other
parts of the country, that is, to replace jobs
lost in old-line manufacturing industries by
creating jobs in services such as health care
and hospitality while simultaneously adapting to
globalization and advancing technology.
Health care is today the premier growth industry
in the United States. Why? One word: Medicare. As
the Federal government has spent an ever-growing
percentage of its budget on Medicare, health care
has become a boom industry.
I drive up my main street. It connects three
small towns. There is a Walgreens every couple of
miles. Close by is a CVS or other competitor. A CVS
opened across the street from a Walgreens recently,
and the Walgreens is only a year old.
I went on Medicare recently. I had little
choice. When you reach age 65, you automatically
get pushed out of private health insurance
programs. In discussing the situation in northern
Mississippi, America's most poverty-stricken state,
I was told by an insurance company representative
that the average annual bill per person on Part B
supplemental care in my region is around $7,000.
What do I pay? Under $1,500 a year.
People pay $1,500 for services worth $7,000. Is
this program likely to grow? Is it likely to
bankrupt the Federal government? Will this lead to
mass inflation and long lines in clinics with
waiting rooms filled with old people? Count on
it.
If you wonder why there is a boom in health care
services, cease wondering. It is not simply that
Americans are aging. It is that the Federal
government has created a bureaucratic monster based
on subsidized health care services. Today, the
unfunded liability of Medicare in present dollars
is in the range of $70 trillion.
Let us return to Bernanke's analysis.
- As I've stressed on previous occasions, the
quality of the workforce is the single most
important factor in an economy's success. In a
rapidly changing world, economically valuable
skills can be maintained only through learning
that extends beyond traditional schooling to
encompass training and re-training well into the
middle years of life.
Does he think that China is beating the socks
off of us -- in Sock
City -- because of the well-educated labor
force? Or is it beating us because of China's
rapidly growing investment in tools and equipment,
coupled with a billion non-unionized, low-paid
workers who are willing to work 12 hours a day, six
days a week?
What kind of learning is he talking about? Not
on-the-job training -- not in the worldview of a
Ph.D.-holding economist. He is referring to the
training provided mostly by the state's
schools.
- Four-year institutions play an important
role in meeting that challenge, but they are not
the sole means for developing workforce skills.
For example, in the 2004-05 school year, the
North Carolina Community College System served
nearly 780,000 students in fifty-eight
institutions. The average community college
student in the state is thirty years old and
likely working while attending school (North
Carolina Community College System, 2006).
Because they offer education closely tailored to
employer demands in the local workplace,
community colleges in North Carolina, as
elsewhere, play an essential role in training
and retraining workers. Moreover, they do so at
a relatively low cost.
This "relatively low cost" means "tax-subsidized
costs imposed on local property owners." This is
what keeps tuition low. Furthermore, this cost
would be lower if the state did not restrict the
number of schools. How does it do this? Through the
system of academic licensing, known as academic
accreditation. So, the answer is two-year
colleges.
- In general, we must move beyond the view
that education is something that takes place
only in K-through-12 schools and four-year
colleges, as important as those are.
He has extended his wide-ranging view to
tax-funded community colleges. What a vision! On a
clear day, he can see for about three miles.
What do students learn in community colleges?
Whatever their part-time, $15 an hour instructors
can teach them. These are liberal arts
institutions, mostly, and to get an AA degree, a
student must take half his courses in the liberal
arts. By the academic standards of the public
schools in my day, let alone my parents' day, these
courses are high school courses -- tax-funded,
dumbed down high schools -- for students who did
not do well in high school.
- Despite losing an average of 25,000
manufacturing jobs each year over the past
decade, North Carolina has managed a net
increase of 44,000 jobs per year in total
nonfarm employment over the same period. Those
two numbers together imply that, on average,
North Carolina has enjoyed an annual net gain of
69,000 non-manufacturing jobs. The largest net
increases have been in education and health
care, professional and business services, and
the leisure and hospitality sector.
Education today is overwhelmingly funded by
taxes. Health care is increasingly funded by taxes.
The hospitality sector relies on consumers with
discretionary income to spend. But what will happen
to the hospitality sector in a major recession?
What will happen when foreign central banks cease
buying half of the U.S. Treasury's debt? Interest
rates will rise, a recession will hit, the dollar
will fall, and the cost of imported goods,
especially oil, will rise.
At that point, Americans will have to
re-structure their household budgets. They will
have to cut spending on non-essentials. That will
be the hospitality sector.
Bernanke mentioned professional and business
services. These are areas of growth, at least
compared to the others, once the red ink overwhelms
the health and education sectors. But when compared
to health, education, and hospitality, business
services are not major factors.
- In the past decade, the state has lost about
one-third of the manufacturing jobs it had at
the beginning of the decade -- a loss of about
250,000 jobs. About 60 percent of the losses
occurred in the textile and apparel industries.
In the textile mills in particular, employment
across the state is down two-thirds from the
level of ten years ago.
This is news? North Carolina's textile sector
has been dying for a generation. It could not
compete with tiny Hong Kong 40 years ago. It has
been undercapitalized, overunionized, and
inefficient for my entire adult lifetime. Sally
Field won an Oscar for "Norma Rae," but the movie's
basic pitch -- what the workers needed was a
stronger trade union -- missed the point. What the
workers needed was to get out of an industry that
faced ever-increasing competition from Asians
recently arrived from dirt-poor villages.
EDUCATION FOR DUMMIES
The "For Dummies" books have been incredibly
successful. It is a cottage industry.
You can get an education in so many ways today:
on the Web, from specialized books, from
newsletters and specialized trade journals. But is
this what we find in a local tax-funded library?
No. What we find is a room full of shelves of
novels nobody ever read and old non-fiction books
nobody reads. The library has old people reading
leisure magazines, teenagers exchanging email, and
people checking out DVDs of movies.
Have you ever walked into a library and seen a
section on "Job Training"? I never have. Is there
any indication that people are coming in to get
materials on career enhancement? No. How do I know?
Because the local library closes at 5 p.m., before
people get off work. If public libraries were
serving people looking to improve their job skills,
they would open at noon and close at 8.
For low-paid people who work in industries
facing competition from Asians, there is little
hope, other than to work for lower wages still. The
only way for these industries to survive is for the
government to quit regulating them and for the
Congress to cease taxing corporate profits. If
investors could invest without paying taxes on
gains until such gains are distributed as dividends
or sold for income, we would see an increase in
investment. That is what low-wage workers need:
more investment in tools of production.
But Bernanke is typical of the academic mindset.
He sees economic redemption in remedial education,
labeled "higher education," delivered by
state-licensed institutions that are funded by tax
money. He sees personal liberation in terms of
low-wage, low-initiative, present-oriented workers
who are now ready to turn off their TV's and go to
night school for three years, to be taught by
part-time, low-wage, low-initiative,
state-certified holders of M.A. degrees in the
liberal arts.
Bernanke and the other certified graduates of
state-certified institutions of higher learning are
the inevitable products of an education system
governed by bureaucrats. They see knowledge
primarily as information imparted in a classroom
environment, an environment as old as ancient
Egypt, and just as bureaucratic. This is priestly
education taught by a self-certified priesthood
whose funding comes from someone other than
students.
The consummate example of the utter lunacy of
this view of education is the Harvard Law
Review, which is the most prestigious academic
journal for lawyers or law professors. It is edited
by students at the Harvard Law School who have yet
to be certified, either academically or by the
bar.
In Asia, low-IQ people hold low-productivity
jobs. They are paid little money. This assumes they
get to a city. The really low-IQ people,
low-initiative people stay on the tiny family farms
and spend their lives in extreme poverty.
Competition from these people is threatening to
low-IQ Americans who work in low-paid jobs here.
Their pay is far higher than the pay of low-wage
Asians. The only things that can change this in a
free society is for these people to get training on
high-tech equipment designed to be operated by
low-IQ people. There are not many careers like
this.
There is always work to be done. There are
always tasks that are suitable for low-initiative
workers. But these jobs do not pay much. That is
because consumers don't care about the hard times
facing producers. They care about what they want.
What else should we expect? Consumers buy from
sellers who deliver what consumers want to buy.
Producers must compete against other producers. In
today's high-competition world market, there are no
government-provided safety nets that do not involve
restrictions on the efficiency of producers in
general to compete against imports.
THE SCREENING SYSTEM
Higher education serves the business world as a
screening system. They can hire people knowing that
these people have displayed these valuable traits:
(1) an unwillingness to assess the long-term
alternative economic returns from their use of
time; (2) their psychological ability to spend many
hours a week listening to economically useless
lectures; (3) their willingness to leap through a
series of bureaucratic hoops that have no
justification other than maintaining the existing
bureaucracy's authority. These are the traits
desired by businesses in a world where the
government regulates the marketplace. They are the
traits of bureaucrats. This is the world aimed at
by government regulators. It is a world remade in
their image.
These traits have little to do with successful
entrepreneurship. Businessmen make use of this
system because it produces obedient middle
managers. Also, it screens indirectly for IQ. Only
people with IQ's above 100 are likely to get
through college with a degree.
Businessmen know that entrepreneurship is as
entrepreneurship does. They can cull the hot-shots
in terms of actually performance on the job. Will
Smith's movie, The
Pursuit of Happyness, is an
artistically compelling description of this system.
It is a true story.
To think that America's tax-subsidized system of
education is the source of America's economic
growth is to confuse cause with effect. It is only
because of rising productivity that governments can
afford to build and fund the self-regulated,
insulated, and monopolistic industry known as
formal education.
These systems get what they pay for: graduates
who believe that the state is the source of
economic growth. I offer Bernanke's speech is a
typical example.
CONCLUSION
Years ago, there was radio comedy show, "It Pays
to Be Ignorant." I can even sing its theme song
today, which shows how well jingles work. "It PAYS
to be ignorant -- whoopdie-dumb, whoopdie do, to be
ignorant." The living proof of this assertion is
the assessment by the academic world regarding the
primary cause of economic growth, namely, money
spent on classroom education. These people are
ignorant of the causes of economic growth, few of
which are taught in the bureaucratic classroom,
whose model extends back to the priests of
Egypt.
If you want to advance your career in the world
of academia, by all means, spend more time in some
state-licensed institution of formal education. It
is a glutted world and has been ever since 1969,
but the system continues to crank out legions of
certified holders of degrees. But you may get
lucky. One of those tenured posts may open up for
you. Meanwhile, you may be able to find part-time
work at a local community college at $15 an hour --
no pension, no health insurance, and no future.
You may even get a job at the Federal Reserve
System.
Gary
North Archive
Dr.
Gary North earned a Ph.D. in history and is one of
America's keenest economic analysts and
commentators. He supports the Austrian school of
economics and is a previous assistant to
libertarian congressman Dr. Ron Paul. Visit his
website at http://garynorth.com.
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